Averting a Middle East War

Yang, Odell and Kostner Articles

The recent attack on the major oil refining facilities in Saudi Arabia sparked an immediate 20% rise in the price of Oil, but it will have a more prolonged consequent impact on the oil markets – and may again shake the global economy if not adequately addressed. Should this hostile action [blamed on the Iranians but not proven] be the catalyst for impending war in the Middle East; we shall see, but it is now up to Trump and his allies to play this card with the greatest of caution as rising oil prices are never good for the global economy that is already showing clear signs of slowing down for multi-faceted reasons.

Any conflict in the Middle East will not prosper without the support of the west, primarily the US. This we are banking on not to escalate the brewing animosity between the Arab states further. But can we really rely on that Trump campaign promise back in 2016 when he was very much against any US involvement in “wasteful, never-ending wars” in the Middle East? To his credit, Trump [so far] is disinclined to military intervention, but we feel others within the USA are much too eager for it. It seems odd that having just dismissed Bolton for his crude and dangerous hawkishness; suddenly this attack erupts under questionable circumstances, and allegations of perpetration denied resolutely by Iran.

Perhaps an even more critical consideration for the US is that no American lives were lost in that attack. Neither were Saudi lives lost. Further, no US assets were touched during the attack. So, we now pose this question to all Americans and most of all, to Trump – WTF – What's the point to attack? Will America once again waste lives to protect Saudi oil when the US is not reliant on foreign oil from anywhere outside Canada and Mexico. Again, what’s the point?

Having no reason for the US to respond militarily leaves the Saudis to face their own crisis – without Washington hovering in the background like Big Brother. And surely, Riyadh will respond with reprisal attacks against Yemen as they have claimed responsibility. We are still uncertain [sceptical] of Iranian participation and see this entire episode as a ‘false flag’ operation: airstrikes, if ever undertaken against Iran will put the whole Arab world in jeopardy. It’s bad for business for all the oil-producing countries in the Gulf area.

We are doubtful if the Saudi’s will launch an attack unilaterally against Iran without the US backing them up. The Iranian reaction would undoubtedly be ferocious and catastrophic and would lead to a major war in the Middle East – something the US, Saudi Arabia, Iran and the other Gulf States do not want for now. Which brings us back to the question – why would Iran sponsor or permit such an attack against the Saudis at all knowing the predictable reaction? Could it be that someone or some group is playing up the events to draw everyone to war? Sounds like someone who would benefit if war pushes through.

The preferred course, for now, is diplomacy, as any confrontation or escalation is a losing proposition for all parties involved. Indeed, Trump offered to meet Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani to try and better map things out for the region and the Arab World. We look forward to this meeting at the UN General Assembly which both leaders are attending, but as of writing, it is far from confirmed that a meeting with leaders of the USA & Iran will happen.

Everyone concerned already knows and attests that there are no winning parties with war except the armaments and aerospace industries.